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David Asbridge David Asbridge 
NPK Fertilizer Advisory Service- Market Production Analysis & Market Outlook – David operates NPK Fertilizer Advisory Service, an independent consulting firm that covers the crop and fertilizer markets, both domestically and globally.

Michele Payn-Knoper Michele Payn-Knoper 
Learn to tell your farm’s story through social media with agricultural advocate Michele Payn-Knoper. A Certified Speaking Professional, Michele founded Cause Matters Corp. to help give a voice to the people who feed the world. Nominated as one of Mashable's Top 5 Twitter Users of the Year, Michele created #Agchat, a weekly streaming conversation that has brought together people in the business of raising food, feed, fuel and fiber on Twitter. She believes social media will help you build a stronger connection between the farm gate and consumer plate.

Pablo Adreani Pablo Adreani 

Pablo Adreani, AgriPAC Consulting - Pablo, an agronomist, journalist and trade consultant from Buenos Aires, Argentina, analyzes South American production and its impact on the world market.



John Baize John Baize 
Baize & Associates – Soybean and Oilseed Industry Issues – John is President of John C. Baize & Associates, an international agricultural trading and policy consulting firm concentrating on oilseeds and soybeans and specializes in biotechnology policy, trade policy, agriculture policy and market development activities.

Expert Advice Expert Advice 


Have You Looked at LinkedIn? Have You Looked at LinkedIn? 
Tuesday Dec 01,2009 | 09:45 AM
Harvest Analysis and Market Outlook
By David Asbridge

The already record large U.S. soybean crop just keeps getting bigger, at least according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest monthly supply-demand report. The department now expects U.S. soybean production to reach 3.32 billion bushels for 2009. This represents a 3.8 percent increase over the previous record set in 2006 and nearly 12 percent higher than last year’s crop.  USDA bases this production estimate on the record 77.5 million acres planted this year coupled with a record 43.3 bushel per acre yield. The yield is 0.2 bushels per acre higher than the previous record set back in 2005.

If U.S. farmers meet this production record, they will provide plenty of soybeans to meet increased domestic and export needs for the coming year. With over 3.3 billion bushels of production, crush could reach nearly 1.7 billion bushels. This is an improvement over last year but remains below the 2006 peak, before the U.S. livestock industry dipped into negative territory and started cutting back on livestock numbers and feed demand. Domestic soybean meal use may only increase slightly, but meal export demand is expected to jump by almost 1 million tons this year due to overseas demand driven to the United States by a short crop in South America. Domestic soybean oil use is expected to expand this year as more oil is used for biodiesel production, although the level will still be below the peak set in 2007. Soybean oil exports are also expected to jump by 1 billion pounds as the United States fills the void from the South American production losses.

Soybean exports from the United States are also expected to set a new record this year as we become the only major producer with many soybeans available for export, at least until the South American crop is harvested in January and February. The record 1.33 billion bushels will surpass last year’s record by about 3.2 percent. This level of exports will account for about 40 percent of this year’s crop, and that does not take into account the product exports mentioned above. Adding in the soybean equivalent of the soybean meal exports, this means that 52 percent of this year’s record soybean crop will be exported as whole beans or bean-equivalent meal (see chart below).


The record crop for 2009 will be partially offset by record usage but will still allow ending stocks to increase this year. From an extremely tight 138 million bushels at the end of the 2008 crop year, stocks are expected to move up to 270 million bushels by the end of this crop year. That offers a relatively balanced level and will take some of the pressure off prices. The expected average price for the 2009 crop is now forecast at $9.20 per bushel, down about 80-90 cents from the 2007 and 2008 crop year averages.  This will still be the third-highest level in U.S. history and nearly $2 per bushel above the previous peak set back in 2003.

On the international front, USDA recently raised the production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina to new records as well. This pushes Brazil up to 2.31 billion bushels and Argentina up to 1.95 billion bushels. With the three largest producers all at record levels, it is no surprise that this year’s world production forecast is also for a new record at almost 9.2 billion bushels. The higher production will allow world stocks to rebuild somewhat after falling for the past two years. Total usage is also expected to reach a new record of about 8.6 billion bushels, while world trade is just short of the record set during the 2007 crop year.

One concern with these numbers is that the entire U.S. crop is not yet out of the field. Although harvest has moved along over the past few weeks, it is still 10-15 points below the five-year average and many farmers are still having trouble getting into those soggy fields to get their crop out. Stay tuned here over the next few months as we determine whether the crop will indeed hit all these new records and what that will mean for acreage, production and prices for the 2010 crop. Also, please remember that you are encouraged to leave comments on this article in the comment section below. See you next month!

posted by Expert 9:45 am

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Views and opinions expressed in the Expert Advice section do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the United Soybean Board/soybean checkoff, its farmer-leaders or any and/or all contractors.